ABSTRACT
Objective: The objective of the study was to recognize core symptoms associated with COVID-19 positivity, its impact on mental health of patients and to identify indicated homeopathic remedies for COVID-19. Methods: In this pilot study, 25 confirmed COVID-19 patients admitted at Dedicated COVID Hospital (DCH) established under Dr. D Y Patil Vidyapeeth campus took part in survey questionnaire entitled as "Health impact survey for clinical features and patient profiles of COVID 19: Based on Homoeopathic perspective" observed by three independent observers. Based on the survey, specificity and sensitivity of symptoms was analyzed by three independent physicians to perform remedy analysis in order to identify indicated homeopathic medicines for COVID-19 in mild to moderate cases. Results: A total of 25 patients were included in study. Out of 25, 16 patients did not have any comorbidity while 9 patients had diabetes, blood pressure or thyroid as one of the co-morbidities. The mean age of the patients was 39.4 years +/- 12.6 where mean age of patients without co-morbidity was significantly lower than the patients with co-morbidities. The major symptoms were found to be fever (76%), cough (76%), shortness of breath (72%), sore throat (56%), fatigue (80%), loss of smell (40%) and Loss of taste(48%). Likelihood ratio of a positive test was found to be higher for Loss of smell, Loss of taste and Cough. Mixed and contrasting responses were reported by the study subjects on mental health impact. Majority of patients showed mild negative impact on mental health. In remedy analysis total 6 homeopathic medicines were observed with most commonly indicated being Carbo vegetabilis (70.66%), Antimonium tartaricum (10.66%), Arsenic album (9.33%) and Bryonia alba Linn. (4%) in 30C potency. Conclusion: The observation from current study demonstrate that fever, cough. shortness of breath, sore throat, fatigue, loss of smell and Loss of taste are most common symptoms associated with COVID-19 and Carbo vegetabilis, Antimonium tartaricum, Arsenic album and Bryonia alba Linn. are most frequently indicated homeopathic medicines for COVID-19.
ABSTRACT
Background: COVID-19, also known as Novel Corona Virus, causes respiratory disorder in humans and has been declared as a global pandemic in the first quarter of the year 2020 by the World Health Organization. As this pandemic persists the second, third and fourth quarters had shown variation in COVID-19 cases. In the first quarter of the year 2021 again there seems to be a rise in cases of COVID- 19. So, a comparative analysis from March 2020 - April 2021 of COVID-19 cases has been studied. Methodology: An exponential statistical model was used to calculate the predicted value of COVID-19 using doubling time for a short duration. The cases of COVID-19 were predicted from 10th April 2021 to 10th June 2021 using doubling time and exponential regression method. Results: The distribution of cases showed a curve-linear trend over the last one year. We explored various models like exponential, logarithmic (lo-linear), linear, quadratic, and generalized linear model (GLM) to fit into the observed distribution of cases. Since the distribution of cases was perfectly following a linear trend in each of the four segments, we applied a linear regression model to observed distribution and then predicted the anticipated no. of cases by extending this linear trend to a future period (120 day). With the help of the exponential statistical model, doubling time/rate based on prior 9 days, the predictions of up to 2.61 lakhs cases have been done by the end of June 2021. Conclusion: This study will be useful for the Government of India and Maharashtra state-specific to Pimpri- Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC), Administrative Units, Frontline health workforce, researchers, and scientists. From this study it has been evident that during the pre-lockdown period, in the initial stages there seems to be rise in cases. While, during lockdown period it was observed that there was relatively decrease in the number of cases. After the government authorities imposed the unlock strategies the cases began to rise as compared to the lockdown period. Thus, it appears that only essential services should be open for the citizens of India and the state lockdown should be carried on for the next 3 months (April 2021 - June 2021).
ABSTRACT
The current article is about the background knowledge of corona, various epidemiological definitions and different strategies adopted to prevent and control corona infection. How the preventive measures are applied and what is epidemiological basis behind these measures is the core of the article. The article also mentioned the variations in mortality pattern and goes on defining important indicators as case-fatality ratio, deaths/1 lakh population and the relevance of both in the current situation of corona infection. In the article, important terms such as different types of cases in corona infection, basic reproduction number, effective reproduction number, and their epidemiological significance in corona infection, herd immunity, and herd immunity threshold are discussed. The importance of lockdown as a preventive measure, enforcement of epidemic disease act 1897 and its amendment, disaster management act 2005, social distancing, cough etiquette, and others are highlighted.